Lesson 2
Assessing Risk/Reducing Risk

Probability and Prediction

Rationale:

Understanding the consequences of our behavior is a critical part of organizing our lives.

Aids Education Objectives:

ESL Objectives:

Procedure:

Begin the class by inviting volunteers to read homework.
(No more than 3 volunteers, 7-8 minutes).

Introduce the concept of probability and prediction and explain that the ability to accurately predict future events depends on our understanding of the relationships between a cause and its effects or between a choice and its consequences. The development of this understanding is an essential part of our education, especially as we take more and more responsibility for our lives and the lives of our loved ones.

Explain that babies soon learn to avoid touching a hot stove in order to avoid the painful burn. With the guidance of elders who help us imagine the probable consequences of strolling into traffic, we learn how to cross the street safely. Our understanding of the consequence of applying heat to water enables us to make our morning coffee or tea. Ask the class for additional examples of how our understanding of the relationship between a cause and its probable effect helps us to lead our lives more rationally. (7-8 minutes)

Next, draw a straight line across the blackboard labeled as follows:

0%______________________________________________________100%

Explain that the line on the board represents a continuum of probabilities (write this on the board, explain "continuum") for some future event occurring. Ask students for an example of an event that will likely occur in their lives with a near 100% probability as a result of some choice they make or action they take (for example, they will become successful students of English if they practice English every day). Ask for an example of an event that has a close to 0% probability of happening sometime in the near future (for example, they will become millionaires as a result of buying a lottery ticket). Ask for examples of events having a 50% chance of occurring.
(10 minutes)

Make clear that there are some events in life over which we have more personal control than others (e.g., becoming better English students vs. winning the lottery).

Now tell students that the idea of a continuum of probabilities can also help to illustrate the degree of risk of HIV infection of various kinds of behavior. Rename the continuum, the continuum of risk. Relable the continuum "no risk," "reduced risk," and "very risky." Remind students that HIV is hard to catch--it can enter the body in these four ways:

Hand out copies of HIV Risk Behavior Questionnaire. (Click here for copy-ready handout.)

HIV Risk Behavior Questionnaire

Would you please take a few minutes to answer the questions below. Your answers will help us to educate the community more effectively to avoid this disease.

Which of the following increases a person’s chances of getting HIV?

Please check each correct answer.

(Associated with sex)

a) Having sexual intercourse with someone who was exposed to HIV five years ago, but who looks and feels healthy and has never shown any sign of the illness

b) Having sexual intercourse with someone who is infected with HIV

c) Massaging someone who has HIV or AIDS

d) Hugging someone who has HIV or AIDS

e) Kissing someone who has HIV or AIDS

f) Properly using latex condoms

g) Using a condom with oil or Vaseline instead of a water based lubricant

h) Using the same condom twice

i) Unprotected oral sex

j) Unprotected vaginal sex

k) Unprotected anal sex

l) Having many sexual partners

(Associated with drugs and use of needles)

m) Using alcohol, marijuana, crack, or other drugs that affect good judgment

n) Sharing needles for injecting drugs

o) Sharing needles for injecting steroids or vitamins or for ear or body piercing or tattooing

p) Sharing a needle that has been cleaned with water

q) Sharing a needle that has been properly cleaned with bleach or alcohol

(Associated with other modes of transmission)

r) Receiving a blood transfusion today

s) Being born to or breastfed by an infected mother

t) Being born to a mother whose husband was exposed to HIV five years ago, but who looks and feels healthy and has never shown any sign of the illness

Answer the questionnaire with the class. Ask students to imagine behaviors on a continuum of risk, from "no risk" to "reduced risk" to "very risky" and to consider why some behaviors are more risky than others.

Some latitude in recognizing the relative risk of these behaviors is acceptable, as long as the basic distinctions between high risk, reduced risk and no risk behaviors are recognized. The first and last, a) and t) are high risk activities and illustrate the danger of HIV transmission during latency; b), of course, is a high risk activity, to which a) might be equivalent; c) through e) are forms of casual contact, through which the virus can not be transmitted; f) is lower risk, (because of the small possibility of condom failure); g) through l) are higher risk sexual activities; m) is a high risk activity related to any drug use that affects judgment; n), o) and p) are high risk needle sharing activities; only q) significantly reduces the risk of sharing needles; receiving blood, r), is almost totally without risk since the blood supply began to be tested for HIV antibodies; s) and t) are significant risk factors, although it is important to note that a recent study has shown that babies born to HIV positive mothers, who were treated with AZT during pregnancy, were only a third as likely to be born with HIV as were babies of HIV mothers who were not treated with AZT.

Make clear to students that all of these behaviors that can put us in danger of HIV infection or may endanger others are within our control. Point to the continuum and reiterate that the risk of a person contracting HIV may be very high or near zero, depending on his or her behavioral choices. Each person’s individual level of risk lies somewhere on this continuum. The choice is ours. Adolescents, in particular, need help understanding that there are no second chances when it comes to HIV infection. Answer any questions. (15 minutes)

Tell the class, now that we understand what behaviors put a person at risk for HIV infection, we can see what we should do to reduce our risk of getting or spreading HIV. Ask students to make a list of what they can do now and (particularly, for younger students) will do in the future to reduce their risk.

After seven or eight minutes create a list on the board. Subdivide the list into things that we can do now and things we will do in the future (this concern for future risk reduction is particularly appropriate for younger people who may not now, but soon may be, inclined to higher risk activities). Make sure the list includes (We can, We will):

Reduce the Risk (Click here for copy-ready handout.):

Now ask the class which is the hardest and which the easiest risk reduction behavior to adopt? Why are some easier than others? The instructor will probably want to review the comparative and superlative adjective forms:

Homework:

Put these questions on the board. Ask students to answer them in their journals. Tell them that you will not collect this assignment from anyone who wants to keep this assignment private, but that it is very important for everyone to do it.

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